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ISSUE GUIDES: Social Security

PUBLIC VIEW: RED FLAGS

The Red Flags section offers guidance on areas of public opinion research where findings may be misleading, unstable, or easily misinterpreted. Public Agenda uses several indicators to judge when survey results should be reported and used cautiously.

Red Flag Statements

Elusive ConsensusLack of Realism?Mixed Messages on ResponsibilityNo Consensus on Stock Plans

Although majorities say the Social Security program is in trouble, few can agree on proposed ideas for changing it. About half of Americans say the government needs to make changes to the system sooner than later, but other legislative issues such as Iraq and terrorism rank even higher.

  • About half of Americans say the government should make major changes to the Social Security program in the next year or two
  • Although most people agree Social Security needs more money, four in 10 say increasing payroll taxes...
  • Half of Americans say the Social Security program has major problems and needs fundamental changes
  • Majorities of Americans say making the Social Security system financially sound should be a top priority for Congress, but...

Many experts would argue that the public's views on Social Security are unrealistic. While Social Security is the main source of income for seniors today, majorities of non-retired Americans believe they will rely mostly on their own savings and Social Security will be a minor source of income. Younger Americans are notably less likely to be concerned about their retirement finances; yet they are more likely to say Social Security will no longer be available to them by the time they retire. While about six in 10 Americans say the government doesn't spend enough on Social Security, just as many mistakenly believe the government spends more on foreign aid than Social Security. (See Medicare Red Flags for related findings and Federal Budget fact files on federal spending.) Similarly, four in 10 Americans say they believe the federal budget deficit wouldn't increase if workers are allowed to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes and a plurality of Americans also believe allowing people to invest some of their Social Security contributions can be made with little additional new spending by government.

  • A plurality of Americans say the proposal to allow people to invest some of their Social Security contributions can be done...
  • About six in 10 Americans say we spend too little on Social Security, but just as many mistakenly believe...
  • Four in 10 Americans say they believe the federal budget deficit wouldn't increase if workers are allowed to invest...
  • Non-retired adults say they expect Social Security will be a minor source of income, but more than four in 10...
  • Younger Americans are more likely to say they will not receive any money from Social Security, but they are also less likely...

There are often inconsistencies between how people define their own financial responsibilities and how willing or able they are to save for retirement. Few Americans say individuals should be asked to pay for a greater share of the nation's retirement system. And although less than one-quarter of Americans believe Social Security will be able to pay them full benefits when they retire, majorities say they're confident about having enough money to live comfortably. Yet few have calculated how much they will actually need. Furthermore, most Americans believe that most people don't save enough money for retirement.

  • Americans are divided on whether the Social Security system will be able to pay them a benefit when they retire...
  • Few Americans say individuals should be asked to pay for a greater share of the nation's retirement system
  • Most Americans say that most people do not save enough money to live comfortably during retirement
  • Two-thirds of Americans say they're confident they'll have enough money to live comfortably when they retire, but more...

Public opinion on proposals to allow individuals to invest some of their Social Security contributions is uncertain and unsettled. Fewer than half of Americans say they've heard a lot about this idea and support wavers when questions are rephrased or include new aspects of the issue - usually a signal that people either do not understand a proposal or have not thought carefully about its implications. Some poll questions find majorities support a stock-market option. But support declines when questions refer to possible risks, such as the unpredictability of the stock market, reduced benefits and the possibility of the government borrowing trillions to set up the program. Similarly, the number of Americans who say they would personally invest some of their Social Security tax contributions declines when the question refers to the risk of lower benefits. And a survey of investors finds their support for the proposal has significantly declined since 2000. If the proposal were to become law, four in 10 Americans seem to believe it would have no effect on them.

  • Fewer than half of Americans say they've heard "a lot" about the proposal to allow workers to invest a portion of their...
  • Pluralities of Americans say if the proposal to allow workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in the stock...
  • Support among investors for allowing individuals to put part of their Social Security taxes into personal savings accounts...
  • Support for allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security tax contributions in the stock market falls when the...
  • Support for allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security tax contributions in the stock market falls when the...
  • Support for allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security tax contributions in the stock market falls when...
  • The number of Americans who say they would personally invest some of their Social Security taxes sharply declines when...

Public Agenda uses several indicators to judge when survey results should be reported and used cautiously:

  • Results change when survey questions are reworded slightly.
  • Results change when implications or trade-offs of a policy are pointed out.
  • Results may be misleading if reported in isolation or out of context.
  • Other research suggests that people have incomplete or inaccurate knowledge in this area.